Yazar
Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre
Basım Tarihi
2015-09
Basım Yeri
-
Elsevier
Konu
Decision making, Uncertainty, Description, Experience, Simulation, Story telling
Tür
Süreli Yayın
Dil
İngilizce
Dijital
Evet
Yazma
Hayır
Kütüphane
Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası
2211-369X
Kayıt Numarası
93cb18b9-f242-4bb2-81c3-706d7d8e4b94
Lokasyon
Business Administration
Tarih
2015-09
Notlar
SpanishMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad
Örnek Metin
Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.
DOI
10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
Cilt
4
