Author
Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre
Publication Date
2015-09
Publication Place
-
Elsevier
Subject
Decision making, Uncertainty, Description, Experience, Simulation, Story telling
Type
Periodical
Language
English
Digital
Yes
Manuscript
No
Library
Özyeğin University
Library Asset ID
2211-369X
Record ID
93cb18b9-f242-4bb2-81c3-706d7d8e4b94
Library Location
Business Administration
Date
2015-09
Notes
SpanishMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad
Sample Text
Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.
DOI
10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
Cilt
4
