نویسنده
Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre
تاریخ انتشار
2015-09
محل انتشار
-
Elsevier
موضوع
Decision making, Uncertainty, Description, Experience, Simulation, Story telling
نوع
دوره ای
زبان
انگلیسی
دیجیتال
بله
نسخه خطی
خیر
کتابخانه
دانشگاه اوزیغین
شناسه دارایی کتابخانه
2211-369X
شماره ثبت
93cb18b9-f242-4bb2-81c3-706d7d8e4b94
محل کتابخانه
Business Administration
تاریخ
2015-09
یادداشتها
SpanishMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad
متن نمونه
Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.
DOI
10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
Cilt
4
