Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation

Name: Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation
Author: Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre

İsim	Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation
Yazar	Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre
Basım Tarihi:	2015-09
Basım Yeri	- Elsevier
Konu	Decision making, Uncertainty, Description, Experience, Simulation, Story telling
Tür	Süreli Yayın
Dil	İngilizce
Dijital	Evet
Yazma	Hayır
Kütüphane:	Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası	2211-369X
Kayıt Numarası	93cb18b9-f242-4bb2-81c3-706d7d8e4b94
Lokasyon	Business Administration
Tarih	2015-09
Notlar	SpanishMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad
Örnek Metin	Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.
DOI	10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005
Cilt	4

Kaynağa git Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Aramaya Dön

Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Kaynağa git

Providing information for decision making: Contrasting description and simulation

Yazar Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre

Basım Tarihi 2015-09

Basım Yeri - Elsevier

Konu Decision making, Uncertainty, Description, Experience, Simulation, Story telling

Tür Süreli Yayın

Dil İngilizce

Dijital Evet

Yazma Hayır

Kütüphane Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Demirbaş Numarası 2211-369X

Kayıt Numarası 93cb18b9-f242-4bb2-81c3-706d7d8e4b94

Lokasyon Business Administration

Tarih 2015-09

Notlar SpanishMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad

Örnek Metin Providing information for decision making should be like telling a story. You need to know, first, what you want to say; second, whom you are addressing; and third, how to match the message and audience. However, data presentations frequently fail to follow these simple principles. To illustrate, we focus on presentations of probabilistic information that accompany forecasts. We emphasize that the providers of such information often fail to realize that their audiences lack the statistical intuitions necessary to understand the implications of probabilistic reasoning. We therefore characterize some of these failings prior to conceptualizing different ways of informing people about the uncertainties of forecasts. We discuss and compare three types of methods: description, simulation, and mixtures of description and simulation. We conclude by identifying gaps in our knowledge on how best to communicate probabilistic information for decision making and suggest directions for future research.

DOI 10.1016/j.jarmac.2014.01.005

Cilt 4