Author
Paker, Evren Balta, Demiralp, S., Demiralp, S.
Publication Date
2023-10-20
Publication Place
-
Taylor & Francis
Subject
Economic crisis, Economic voting, Partizanship, Voter defection, Voter vulnerability
Type
Periodical
Language
English
Digital
Yes
Manuscript
No
Library
Özyeğin University
Library Asset ID
1468-3849
Record ID
1a180fa1-2868-4a94-bf23-748ad3d6a712
Library Location
International Relations
Date
2023-10-20
Sample Text
This study examines patterns of voter defection from Turkey’s incumbent AKP amid major economic and democratic decline. As in other electoral autocracies, defectors constitute a small but politically significant group in Turkey, where the opposition’s ability to secure a transition from authoritarianism depends on reducing the incumbent’s vote share. Based on survey data gathered in November 2021 and February 2022, we find that while the high level of partizanship among AKP voters hinders defection, persistent economic and democratic decline still reduces incumbent support. We also found that defections are higher outside of the lowest income group. Our findings have important implications for opposition strategies in electoral autocracies. Directing public debate away from identity issues to economic and democratic problems increases the likelihood of defection. In addition, offering voters clear superior alternatives decreases the cost of uncertainty that comes with change and increases the likelihood of defection.
DOI
10.1080/14683849.2023.2200941
Cilt
24
