Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience

Name: Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience
Author: Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre

İsim	Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience
Yazar	Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre
Basım Tarihi:	2015-08
Basım Yeri	- Elsevier
Konu	Communication of forecasts, Simulation, Experience, Predictive judgments, Probabilistic inference, Decision making
Tür	Süreli Yayın
Dil	İngilizce
Dijital	Evet
Yazma	Hayır
Kütüphane:	Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası	0148-2963
Kayıt Numarası	031376fe-70f3-4b92-a867-eb28294adc11
Lokasyon	Business Administration
Tarih	2015-08
Notlar	Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.
Örnek Metin	It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Before implementing this suggestion, however, it is important to assess whether people can make appropriate probabilistic inferences based on such simulated experience. In an experimental program, we find that statistically sophisticated and naïve individuals relate easily to this presentation mode, they prefer it to analytic descriptions, and their probabilistic inferences improve. We conclude that asking decision makers to use simulations actively is potentially a powerful – and simplifying – method to improve the practice of forecasting.
DOI	10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039
Cilt	68

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Communicating forecasts: the simplicity of simulated experience

Yazar Hogarth, R. M., Soyer, Emre

Basım Tarihi 2015-08

Basım Yeri - Elsevier

Konu Communication of forecasts, Simulation, Experience, Predictive judgments, Probabilistic inference, Decision making

Tür Süreli Yayın

Dil İngilizce

Dijital Evet

Yazma Hayır

Kütüphane Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Demirbaş Numarası 0148-2963

Kayıt Numarası 031376fe-70f3-4b92-a867-eb28294adc11

Lokasyon Business Administration

Tarih 2015-08

Notlar Due to copyright restrictions, the access to the full text of this article is only available via subscription.

Örnek Metin It is unclear whether decision makers who receive forecasts expressed as probability distributions over outcomes understand the implications of this form of communication. We suggest a solution based on the fact that people are effective at estimating the frequency of data accurately in environments that are characterized by plentiful, unbiased feedback. Thus, forecasters should provide decision makers with simulation models that allow them to experience the frequencies of potential outcomes. Before implementing this suggestion, however, it is important to assess whether people can make appropriate probabilistic inferences based on such simulated experience. In an experimental program, we find that statistically sophisticated and naïve individuals relate easily to this presentation mode, they prefer it to analytic descriptions, and their probabilistic inferences improve. We conclude that asking decision makers to use simulations actively is potentially a powerful – and simplifying – method to improve the practice of forecasting.

DOI 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.039

Cilt 68