Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey

Name: Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey
Author: Yucel, E., Salman, S., Gunnec, Dilek, Gungor, O.

İsim	Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey
Yazar	Yucel, E., Salman, S., Gunnec, Dilek, Gungor, O.
Basım Tarihi:	2024-12
Basım Yeri	- Elsevier
Konu	Risk sensitivity, Migration paths, Agent-based modeling, Syrian refugees, Forced migration
Tür	Süreli Yayın
Dil	İngilizce
Dijital	Evet
Yazma	Hayır
Kütüphane:	Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası	0038-0121
Kayıt Numarası	b04d9160-42a5-4e83-8fd0-235fda758559
Lokasyon	Industrial Engineering
Tarih	2024-12
Notlar	TÜBİTAK
Örnek Metin	The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model's functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM's potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.
DOI	10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089
Cilt	96

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Simulation of migration paths using agent-based modeling: The case of Syrian refugees en route to Turkey

Yazar Yucel, E., Salman, S., Gunnec, Dilek, Gungor, O.

Basım Tarihi 2024-12

Basım Yeri - Elsevier

Konu Risk sensitivity, Migration paths, Agent-based modeling, Syrian refugees, Forced migration

Tür Süreli Yayın

Dil İngilizce

Dijital Evet

Yazma Hayır

Kütüphane Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Demirbaş Numarası 0038-0121

Kayıt Numarası b04d9160-42a5-4e83-8fd0-235fda758559

Lokasyon Industrial Engineering

Tarih 2024-12

Notlar TÜBİTAK

Örnek Metin The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model's functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM's potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.

DOI 10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089

Cilt 96