Author
Yucel, E., Salman, S., Gunnec, Dilek, Gungor, O.
Publication Date
2024-12
Publication Place
-
Elsevier
Subject
Risk sensitivity, Migration paths, Agent-based modeling, Syrian refugees, Forced migration
Type
Periodical
Language
English
Digital
Yes
Manuscript
No
Library
Özyeğin University
Library Asset ID
0038-0121
Record ID
b04d9160-42a5-4e83-8fd0-235fda758559
Library Location
Industrial Engineering
Date
2024-12
Notes
TÜBİTAK
Sample Text
The decade-long Syrian civil war has triggered a significant migration wave in the Middle East, with Turkey hosting the largest number of Syrian refugees. Our study introduces an agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate and predict migration paths in potential future refugee crises. The primary goal is to support aid organizations in planning the delivery of essential aid services during migration movements, offering insights that can be applied to various geographical areas and migration scenarios. While we use the Syrian refugee movement to Turkey as a case study, the model is intended as a flexible tool for analyzing migration patterns in future crises. The proposed ABM considers two characteristics of refugee groups: level of risk sensitivity and level of information. To enhance the model's functionality, we have extended the A* algorithm with a cost metric to calculate the weighted average of distance and risk to a destination point. Our case study examines the crisis in southern Idlib through six scenarios, offering insights into refugee numbers, migration paths, camp occupancy rates, and heat maps of densely populated regions for each scenario. Validation is performed by comparing model outcomes with situation reports and official statements from the relevant period, demonstrating the proposed ABM's potential for adaptation to other migration instances and further analysis under different parameters.
DOI
10.1016/j.seps.2024.102089
Cilt
96
