Author
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Publication Date
2023
Publication Place
Washington, D.C. -
International Monetary Fund
Subject
Currency crises, Economic & financial crises & disasters, Financial crises, Foreign Exchange, International agencies, International Agreements and Observance, International Economics, International institutions, International organization, International Organizations, Macroeconomics
Type
Book
Language
Arabic
Digital
Yes
Manuscript
No
Pages Count
64
Library
Wesleyan University Library
Library Asset ID
ISBN : 9798400256783, ISBN : 9798400254345
Record ID
alma9933318261803768
Library Location
See online access
Date
2023
Notes
There is a great deal of uncertainty on the outlook, as a combination of repercussions from global headwinds, local challenges and geopolitical risks are having a negative impact on economic momentum across the Middle East and Central Asia region. Expectations indicate a slowdown in growth this year in the Middle East and North Africa region due to a decline in oil production, a tightening policy environment in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and conflict. In the Caucasus, another hope with the specificity of Central Caucasus, migration, trade, and financial flows following the Russian war in Ukraine continue to support economic activity, although growth is expected to record a slight decline this year. Expectations indicate an improvement in future economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa region during the years 2024 and 2025, with some factors affecting growth this year gradually receding, including temporary cuts in oil production. However, growth is expected to continue to slow over the forecast period due to structural growth obstacles. Economic growth is expected to slow next year and continue its decline in the medium term, as it is chronic. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the improvement in activity resulting from real and financial inflows from Russia is gradually fading and entrenched structural challenges remain unresolved. Overall, inflation rates are falling in line with lower global price pressures, although spillovers – including massive wage growth in some Caucasus and Central Asian countries – and associated climate-induced events remain. There has been some improvement since April, but the balance of risks surrounding the outlook is still tilted towards negative developments. In this context, structural reforms need to be accelerated to enhance growth and resilience, while tightening monetary and fiscal policies remains necessary in several economies to achieve a permanent reduction in inflation levels and ensure the sustainability of public debt sustainability.
Seri
Regional Economic Outlook
