The time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in turkiye: an analysis of the post-pandemic market

Name: The time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in turkiye: an analysis of the post-pandemic market
Author: Özmen, Betül Elif, Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk

İsim	The time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in turkiye: an analysis of the post-pandemic market
Yazar	Özmen, Betül Elif, Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk
Basım Tarihi:	2023
Basım Yeri	- IEEE
Konu	Electricity prices, Energy markets, Natural gas prices, Price predictions, Regression
Tür	Belge
Dil	İngilizce
Dijital	Evet
Yazma	Hayır
Kütüphane:	Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası	979-835031258-4
Kayıt Numarası	c3ce8df1-61e7-4386-946a-d3798456ec37
Lokasyon	Electrical & Electronics Engineering
Tarih	2023
Örnek Metin	This study investigates the relationship between natural gas and electricity prices in Turkiye, one of the countries affected by sudden increases in natural gas prices after the pandemic and regional conflicts. Turkiye determines electricity and natural gas reference prices through transparent markets operated by Energy Exchange (EXIST). Using data from EXIST's transparency platform and regression methods, the study aims to determine when the rapid increases in natural gas prices affect electricity prices. Previous research has shown that increased natural gas prices do not immediately affect electricity prices; instead, affect them after a certain period, depending on the country's natural gas share in the supply. The study will use a similar methodology to evaluate the time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in the post-pandemic Turkish energy market. The accuracy of the findings is tested by Mean Absolute Error, Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percent Error, and Mean Percent Error metrics. The findings of this study show that a sixty-day delay is observed in the relationship between natural gas and electricity prices in Turkiye, with an increase in forecasting capability of up to 8.88% error.
DOI	10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161923

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The time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in turkiye: an analysis of the post-pandemic market

Yazar Özmen, Betül Elif, Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk

Basım Tarihi 2023

Basım Yeri - IEEE

Konu Electricity prices, Energy markets, Natural gas prices, Price predictions, Regression

Tür Belge

Dil İngilizce

Dijital Evet

Yazma Hayır

Kütüphane Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Demirbaş Numarası 979-835031258-4

Kayıt Numarası c3ce8df1-61e7-4386-946a-d3798456ec37

Lokasyon Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Tarih 2023

Örnek Metin This study investigates the relationship between natural gas and electricity prices in Turkiye, one of the countries affected by sudden increases in natural gas prices after the pandemic and regional conflicts. Turkiye determines electricity and natural gas reference prices through transparent markets operated by Energy Exchange (EXIST). Using data from EXIST's transparency platform and regression methods, the study aims to determine when the rapid increases in natural gas prices affect electricity prices. Previous research has shown that increased natural gas prices do not immediately affect electricity prices; instead, affect them after a certain period, depending on the country's natural gas share in the supply. The study will use a similar methodology to evaluate the time-lag effect of natural gas prices on electricity prices in the post-pandemic Turkish energy market. The accuracy of the findings is tested by Mean Absolute Error, Mean Square Error, Mean Absolute Percent Error, and Mean Percent Error metrics. The findings of this study show that a sixty-day delay is observed in the relationship between natural gas and electricity prices in Turkiye, with an increase in forecasting capability of up to 8.88% error.

DOI 10.1109/EEM58374.2023.10161923