Impact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead market

Name: Impact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead market
Author: Poyrazoğlu, O. G., Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk

İsim	Impact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead market
Yazar	Poyrazoğlu, O. G., Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk
Basım Tarihi:	2019-06
Basım Yeri	- IEEE
Konu	Electricity price forecasting, Natural gas price, Price formation, Multiple linear regression, Interaction regression, Lagged price
Tür	Belge
Dil	İngilizce
Dijital	Evet
Yazma	Hayır
Kütüphane:	Özyeğin Üniversitesi
Demirbaş Numarası	978-153868086-5
Kayıt Numarası	c1b9daf6-9429-47be-9a81-8a6cd132eb68
Lokasyon	Electrical & Electronics Engineering
Tarih	2019-06
Örnek Metin	The electricity is a regular commodity that is being sold and bought in a highly transparent and efficient market in Turkey. The market is operated by EXIST and an hourly energy price is formed for every hour in the day-ahead market. In Sept. 2018, EXIST also found a central natural gas market in Turkey which enables a ground for all shareholders in the natural gas industry. This study examines the impact of natural gas prices formed in the market on the electricity price. Different predictors are tested to lower the mean absolute percentage error. Addition of past natural gas price into the forecasting model reduces the error from 15.85% to 14.31 % when the average of the last two weeks' natural gas price is used. This may indicate that the current natural gas price affects the electricity market two weeks later. And the final model also reached the 6.67% error for a Saturday, which is a significantly accurate forecast for a volatile electricity market.
DOI	10.1109/GPECOM.2019.8778514

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Impact of natural gas price on electricity price forecasting in Turkish day-ahead market

Yazar Poyrazoğlu, O. G., Poyrazoğlu, Göktürk

Basım Tarihi 2019-06

Basım Yeri - IEEE

Konu Electricity price forecasting, Natural gas price, Price formation, Multiple linear regression, Interaction regression, Lagged price

Tür Belge

Dil İngilizce

Dijital Evet

Yazma Hayır

Kütüphane Özyeğin Üniversitesi

Demirbaş Numarası 978-153868086-5

Kayıt Numarası c1b9daf6-9429-47be-9a81-8a6cd132eb68

Lokasyon Electrical & Electronics Engineering

Tarih 2019-06

Örnek Metin The electricity is a regular commodity that is being sold and bought in a highly transparent and efficient market in Turkey. The market is operated by EXIST and an hourly energy price is formed for every hour in the day-ahead market. In Sept. 2018, EXIST also found a central natural gas market in Turkey which enables a ground for all shareholders in the natural gas industry. This study examines the impact of natural gas prices formed in the market on the electricity price. Different predictors are tested to lower the mean absolute percentage error. Addition of past natural gas price into the forecasting model reduces the error from 15.85% to 14.31 % when the average of the last two weeks' natural gas price is used. This may indicate that the current natural gas price affects the electricity market two weeks later. And the final model also reached the 6.67% error for a Saturday, which is a significantly accurate forecast for a volatile electricity market.

DOI 10.1109/GPECOM.2019.8778514